Is MDI prepared for a Fiona-like hurricane which hit Nova Scotia? NOAA: Brace for more storms
Other news: Bar Harbor sends state $236 million in sales tax from tourism; groups seek regional solution to housing crisis
SOUTHWEST HARBOR, Oct. 29, 2022 - The above photo was taken on Shore Road in Manset at extreme high tide in 2016 by a reader who submitted it to the QSJ.
Last Wednesday I took this photo of what is locally known as the Hook property next to the Harbormaster’s shack.
That property has been tagged by the town Comprehensive Plan task force as susceptible to erosion and storm surge as is all of Shore Road.
(Comprehensive plans are not binding on town governance. If the plans were binding, Tremont would never have allowed the campground which it approved. The state requires towns to update their plans if they wish to apply for grant money.)
Of all the efforts under way to update the four comprehensive plans on the island, SWH has been the only town to address rising sea and storm surge as a priority.
Many long-time residents and fishermen think the rising sea is not a real issue - another left-wing trope - and that they have learned to work around high tides for generations.
But there is another factor in play - that of the changing pattern of storms.
On Sept. 24, Hurricane Fiona struck Nova Scotia with 105 mph winds and recorded the area’s lowest pressure in history. That’s only 500 miles up the coast. One month later, 200 persons are still in temporary quarters. https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/nearly-100-still-homeless-in-cbrm-more-than-a-month-after-fiona-1.6125026
A storm like Fiona with a direct hit on MDI at high tide would devastate all the harbors on the Quietside and low-lying homes and businesses. A power outage could last for weeks. Roads and bridges could be compromised.
If the storm proceeded into inland Maine, which is densely forested, it could take down more power lines and keep utility crews working around the entire state.
Maine is more forested and has more power outages on average than any other state, according to Donald Dumont of the National Weather Service in Gray, Maine.
“Our trees are much more susceptible to uprooting and falling over and our grid is not built for that,” Dumont said on the NPR show, Maine Calling. “If you look down in Florida, it was amazing. They have a Cat 4 and you still see palm groves on the trees. I guarantee you that will not be the case in Maine. We won't get a Cat 4. But if we got a Category 1 we will have significant impacts just due to the fact that will happen during the warm season and our trees are not used to it.”
Ten years ago today, an hour outside of New York City, I watched the water from superstorm Sandy create a small lake where there was a softball field. Sandy did something no storm had ever done that far out in the ocean. It took a sharp turn to the left and slammed into New Jersey. The surge struck New York City exactly at high tide.
Sandy was drawn westward by an unusual high-pressure cell called a blocking high, which stagnated over Greenland, slowing any eastward movement by Sandy and giving it time to regain strength.
Between Oct. 27 and 29, 2012 the cold air from the high began to mix with the warm air of the hurricane, giving the storm new energy. That effectively transformed the hurricane into a sprawling Post-Tropical Cyclone. It became known as Superstorm Sandy.
The following is an excellent visual recreation of the storm by NOAA released today to mark the anniversary. You can see the highly organized hurricane with a clear eye develop into a sloppy amalgamation of warm air atop more temperate waters to create a huge unstable mass, moving northeast at first and then suddenly westward. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/a2051beb42b044c58a82d671b28bbb17
A similar directional change happened with Hurricane Ian a month ago, which was first predicted to dissipate out at sea but was forced back to strike the east coast of northern Florida by unexpected atmospheric pressure.
That is why a storm like Fiona definitely could happen in Maine, said Monica Allen, director of public affairs for the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research.
She pointed to contemporary research by Hiroyuki Murakami, NOAA climate change expert based in Princeton, N.J., that the type of merged storms after leaving the warm waters in the Tropics are increasing in frequency and lasting longer. Murakami believes someday they will circumnavigate the North Atlantic and strike Europe. Meteorologists call these storms ETs for “extratropical cyclones.”
“Over the past 40 years, ET storms increased a lot in the North Atlantic,” he said. “A storm can travel all the way from a tropical region to middle latitudes like Nova Scotia.”
“Declining anthropogenic aerosol (pollution) contributes a lot to this increase because the sun is shining through brighter and warming the water,” he said.
Maine has been relatively storm free the past century. In 1954, there were two named storms Carol and Edna, which came up the coast. The last major storm was Hurricane Bob in 1991, which struck Rhode Island and then raced up the coast. After passing over the Gulf of Maine, Bob made landfall near Rockland on Aug. 19 as a tropical storm.
A wind gust of 92 miles per hour was observed in Wiscasset. Portland received more than eight inches of rainfall in just a 36-hour period.
This week the SWH task force presented its final recommendations to the select board, showing multiple slides of the rising sea. Unlike the other MDI towns, the task force was asked to update the plan in just three areas: rising sea/storm surges, storm runoff and housing. You may read the entire report here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PLb41EMbiJsxGizJ3OVR5iwHQ6IW4hqr/view?usp=sharing
The report recommended planning for a sea level rise of 1.5 feet by 2050 and 4 feet by 2100 and called for action to:
• Prevent erosion above HAT line (Highest Astronomical Tide)
• Conform with state recommendations for storm surges & sea level rise
• Assist residents in understanding FEMA flood maps, storm surge maps, and sea level rise information
• Examine Shore Road and protect as needed
• Understand MAINE DOT and ACADIA NP plans about future issues at Seawall & Adams Bridge
The MDI town most likely to be affected by the combination of rising sea and storm surge is Tremont as indicated by this tool, https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/vul-soc/0/-7610987.056400036/5504565.172896184/12/satellite/none/0.8/2050/interHigh/midAccretion
NOAA stated: “The data and maps in this tool illustrate the scale of potential flooding, not the exact location, and do not account for erosion, subsidence, or future construction. Water levels are shown as they would appear during the highest high tides (excludes wind-driven tides).”
In a town-wide survey in 2021, the development idea favored most by Tremont residents was a “working waterfront.”
The question “Should the town government protect coastal land” also got the highest support, along with protecting aquifers. Finally, there was this question:
But the definition of “waterfront” is a moving target. What will it look like in 2050? 2075? 2100? A comprehensive plan of this century unfortunately must take this into account.
Bar Harbor sends state record sales tax revenue from tourism and gets little back
BAR HARBOR - This town paid more in sales tax for tourism than any other municipality in Maine except Portland in 2021, the last year data was available.
This town paid a record $236,398,560 in sales taxes for restaurants and lodging, far more than the previous high of $174,903,312 in 2019. It was more than Bangor or Augusta, two much larger municipalities.
There was a dip in 2020 during the pandemic which brought it down to $114,351,296.
Click to see the numbers here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15BIKZwik3-4lOnxDn2EdRT0RB0-3-4EKp2GSFY7e-G4/edit?usp=sharing
Tourism, as defined by restaurant and lodging, accounted for 70 percent of all sales tax collected in Bar Harbor in 2021.
For all this largesse, the town received only $369,670 in revenue sharing back from the state. It showed how one industry rides the backs of the citizenry who do not enjoy any economic benefit, but suffer the consequences of over-crowding, pollution and a significant decline in quality of life. It is another indignity of being a residential taxpayer in Bar Harbor.
Two-thirds of Bar Harbor property tax revenues come from residents. They subsidize the one third local business owners who generate the sales taxes which goes into the state’s general fund.
Five of seven members of the Town Council have directly benefitted from tourism:
Jeff Dobbs. He runs a video promotional business which did numerous videos for hotels and tourism venues.
Matt Hochman. He ran a cafe which had its best days when cruise ships were in town.
Jill Goldthwait. She is the wife of the former owner of the concessionaire of Jordan Pond House in Acadia National Park.
Joe Minutolo. He owns and runs Bar Harbor Bicycle Shop. (Strangely he opposes cruise ships and overwrought tourism)
Erin Cough. She was just named the new director of the historical society. I asked her how much of the society’s revenues are dependent on cruise ships. She did not reply. The society’s museum is a 10-minute walk from where cruise ship passengers disembark.
Two councilors with no known direct connection:
Gary Friedmann. He runs a business which helps non-profits raise money.
Val Peacock. She is an educational consultant whose husband runs a contracting business.
Regional solution to housing crisis sought on MDI, Blue Hill Peninsula
NORTHEAST HARBOR - Quietly and without much fuss, two groups of stakeholders across communities and businesses have begun meeting to address the housing crisis in coastal Downeast as a regional challenge.
Planning consultant Noel Musson and Marla O’Byrne, director the Island Housing Trust, have held three meetings with representatives of the Bar Harbor YWCA, College of the Atlantic, Friends of Acadia, Acadia National Park, Mount Desert 365, Mount Desert Chamber of Commerce and town economic development members.
On Blue Hill Peninsula, all nine towns will meet Nov. 30 to explore the idea of a regional housing authority to tackle its workforce housing needs. It will be the third meeting of the group, lead by Brooklin Select chair William Golden and facilitated by community consultant Allen Kratz.
“This issue is like a sponge. If you squeeze it here, water is going to move over there,” said Kathy Miller, director of MD 365 which is building year-round workforce housing in the village here. “So, the town boundaries are somewhat artificial. It's a regional issue we're all facing.”
Some members have been exploring the idea of a larger regional effort, to include all of MDI, Trenton and Lamoine, and perhaps the Cranberries Isles. Musson said the group is seeking to organize a housing “summit” in late winter.
The catalyzing event on Blue Hill Peninsula was the closing of a nursing home on Deer Isle because of lack of staff housing, arousing concern from the aging population. That brought together the nine towns after a similar effort failed several years ago, Cohen said.
“At the end of the October meeting, the group said we're making progress. Let's get back together. And we want to specifically spend more time talking about our Peninsula wide regional housing authority, the potential of how you do code enforcement that's becoming an increasing problem because code enforcement officers in each of the town is really a part time job.
“We may be two to 300 units shy of affordable housing now. Any regional activity would have to go before each of the communities’ annual meeting. We are not gonna make the next round. But maybe in 2024, we might be ready to ask if they really want to create this authority.”
Musson said the MDI group will focus on collecting data to better understand the scale of the problem. So far, the data has been anecdotal like what I received from Police Chief Jim Willis when I asked him how many police personnel in Bar Harbor and Mount Desert, which share a police force, live on the island:
Full time employees living on MDI - 11
Full time employees not living on MDI - 19
Seasonal and part time employees living on MDI - 4
Seasonal and part time employees not living on MDI - 6
Don’t know about you, but I like my essential service providers - ambulance, fire, police, hospital staff - to be there when I need them and not 40 minutes away.
“It’s hard for just one town so maybe joining together might be the answer,” said Evelyn Duncan, a Stonington Select Board member. “We’ve got to do something.”
MDI football team in repeat match against Waterville Friday for championship
BAR HARBOR - MDI High School will play Waterville in the finals of the Eight-Man Large football championships Friday.
MDI (6-2) defeated Camden Hills 42-8 last night. Waterville (5-3) defeated Bath 22-12.
On Sept. 16, Waterville defeated MDI 26-20. After starting the season 1-2, MDI has won five straight games.
For the Camden Hills game story, read MDI Defense Key to 42-8 Trojan Win Over Camden Hills [PHOTOS]
TRIBUTE: Mildred Thurston
SOUTHWEST HARBOR - Mildred Evelyn (Sherman) Thurston passed away peacefully at the age of 89 on Sept. 11, 2022. She was born on Oct. 25, 1932, the daughter of Lena Blanche Weed and Calvin Austin Sherman.
She graduated from Rockland High School in 1951. Mildred was employed by the state of Maine Department of Labor in the Rockland office from March 1962, transferring to the Ellsworth office in June 1976 until her retirement in June 1991. Since her retirement Millie has enjoyed knitting, gardening and traveling. She loved animals, especially her cats, and volunteered her services to the local SPCA Thrift Shop in Northeast Harbor.
She attended Tremont Congregational Church and was part of the Ladies Aid. She was a member of the Supreme Emblem Club, No.200 of the Eastern Star, Ivy Chapter No. 16 of Warren. She loved and was inspired by piano and organ music, being accomplished in playing both. She especially enjoyed meeting with friends at the local coffee shop to hear their thoughts and ideas while they discussed the events of the day.
Mildred is survived by her daughter Crystal (Young) and her husband, Joe Bourque, of Augusta. She is also survived by her stepchildren Kathleen (Thurston) and her husband, William Thurnau, of Forsitell, Mo., and Bass Harbor, Paula (Thurston) and her husband, Guy Dunbar, of Southwest Harbor, Susan (Thurston) and her husband, Paul Douglas, of Hulls Cove and Bill Thurston and wife, Gabrielle, of Southwest Harbor. Also surviving are her two grandchildren, Nicholas Bourque and wife, Chelsea, of Levant and Kimberly Bourque as well as step-grandchildren William Thurnau, Kirstie Dunbar-Kari, Hollie Sawyer, Lucas Dunbar, Brennan Spofford, Peter Benson V, Marie Connell and Maxine Benson and all their children, Beau and Jaqueline Niemann, Caleb Thurnau, Jack and Leo Kari, Joshua Sawyer, Jolene and Guy Williams, Mallory, Phoebe, Cassidy and Aubrey Dunbar. Also surviving are two great-grandchildren, Lily and Henry Bourque, three nieces, one nephew and several cousins. She was pre-deceased by her husband, Leslie W. Thurston, of Southwest Harbor, her daughter Crystal’s father, Richard Sherman, her father and mother, her brother Calvin A. Sherman Jr., two sisters, Edna Sherman and Cynthia (Sherman) Fowles, all of Rockland, and her step-granddaughter Gretchen (Thurnau) Niemann of Foristell, Mo.
In keeping with her wishes there were no public services. Family attended her burial in Achorn Cemetery, Rockland, which was arranged by Burpee Carpenter & Hutchins Funeral Home, Rockland. For those who wish, gestures of remembrance may be made to Acadia Wildlife Foundation, P.O. Box 207, Mount Desert, ME 04660; The ARK Animal Shelter, P.O. Box 276, Cherryfield, ME 04622 or to any SPCA of your choice.